Mainly, but not exclusively, monetary policy aspects
A short piece for The Spinoff on options for responding to the economic effects of coronavirus, including a possible temporary reduction in GST, March 2020
A (30 March 2020) letter to Simon Bridges and David Seymour re the absolute ban on funerals, committals etc under the March 2020 “lockdown”. Letter to Bridges and Seymour re funeral ban
Rebuilding New Zealand’s Shattered Economy in a Post-Covid World, Policy Brief for the SSANSE series on a post-Covid future, April/May 2020
My opening remarks for an appearance at Parliament’s Epidemic Response Committee, 13 May 2020 (and Parliament’s Facebook recording of that morning’s hearings).
Notes for a talk to the Victoria University student branch of the Institute for International Affairs Notes for VUW IIA talk 19 May 2020
Appearing to be active, but accomplishing little: New Zealand monetary policy in 2020, Notes for a guest lecture to Victoria University’s Master of Applied Finance class, 12 December 2020
Should have done better: monetary policy in Covid times, Address to Institute of Directors, Wellington, 5 August 2021
What’s gone wrong at the Reserve Bank?, Stuff op-ed published 19 February 2022
Review of Steven Hamilton & Richard Holden, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism: How We Crushed the Curve but Lost the Race, UNSW Press, Sydney, 2024, 240pp
My original (not paywalled version)
In February 2026 I lodged OIA requests for the staff papers that were input for the February and May 2021 Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statements, with a view to better understanding thought processes and internal analysis during a period in which, it is now fairly widely recognised, the MPC was misjudging inflation and the required stance of monetary policy. These were the two (lengthy) documents I received in response.
RBNZ forecast papers for Feb and and May 2021 MPSs Part 1
RBNZ forecast papers for Feb and and May 2021 MPSs Part 2
In February 2026 the government announced a long-promised inquiry into the conduct of monetary policy during the Covid period.
At the request of one of the reviewers, my former colleague David Archer, I provided some brief notes to him and his colleague, with a focus on identifying bits of my commentary during the Covid period that were relevant. This was not in any sense intended as comprehensive submission (somewhat surprisingly, no public submissions were invited to this inquiry).
Material for David Archer for independent review of Covid era NZ monetary policy^
I also lodged OIA requests with the Minister of Finance and with the Treasury on background to the review. The documents provided by the Minister on 20 April 2026 are here
Willis OIA response re Covid monetary policy inquiry April 2026
The Treasury’s responses, received on 4 May 2026, are in three separate documents. The first is a covering letter with links to other material already released or then about to be released. The other two documents contained the materially released directly.
Covering letter Treasury OIA response re Covid monetary policy inquiry May 2026
Part 1 of Treasury OIA response re Covid monetary policy inquiry May 2026
Part 2 of Treasury OIA response re Covid monetary policy inquiry May 2026
A Reserve Bank response to an OIA request on these matters is here
Click to access rbnz-oia-response-re-covid-monetary-policy-inquiry-may-2026-1.pdf
The report of the Archer/Orphanides review into Covid-era New Zealand monetary policy was released on 22 September 2026.
My comments on that report, initially a blog post, are here https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/thoughts-on-the-archer-and-orphanides-nz-covid-monetary-policy-report-sept-2026-1.pdf
