The China Tightrope is the title of the new book by Newsroom’s foreign affairs reporter Sam Sachdeva. The subtitle is “Navigating New Zealand’s relationship with a world superpower”. In the quite limited New Zealand media coverage of the China issues, Newsroom has been better than most. In conjunction with the Financial Times, in 2017 they helped break the story of then National MP Jian Yang’s highly questionable, hidden from the public (and in important respects from the NZ immigration and citizenship authorities), past, including as a CCP member and teacher at a PLA university run at least in part to train spies. They gave considerable coverage to Anne-Marie Brady’s Magic Weapons paper that was released at about the same time. They even ran a post I’d originally written here on NZ/PRC issues.
There was quite a lot of coverage of these issues for a couple of years after 2017, but then the issue seemed to rather die away, at least as far as the media were concerned. And even as more and more of the true character of the CCP regime in China under Xi Jinping became apparent. The all-consuming nature of Covid probably helped, as did the (apparently) joint decision by Jacinda Ardern and Todd Muller (in perhaps the only worthwhile thing he did in his brief stint as National leader) to jettison MPs Raymond Huo and Jian Yang just prior to the 2020 election. Remove the headline risk and you reduce the frequency of headlines must have been the hope. Professor Brady, a world expert on Chinese influence issues, also appeared to turn away from public engagement (perhaps not entirely surprisingly after some of her experiences) and without prominent credible expert voices there often wasn’t that much for busy journalists to report. Establishment New Zealand had, after all, never really wanted scrutiny or challenge at all; there were too many cosy interests (all no doubt legal) to protect. Hadn’t the previous government set up and funded (and the current government maintained it) the New Zealand China Council largely to influence the public narrative in an emollient direction. There there, nothing to worry your heads about. We the bureaucrats and business people have it all under control, never ever uttering even a concerned word about the nature of the regime or its activities and interests here. And that suited both political parties, with strong fundraising interests.
So when it was reported a few months ago that Sam Sachdeva was writing a book on the issues it piqued my interest. There aren’t, after all, that many serious books on New Zealand current political issues.
Sachdeva appears to have faced considerable challenges in writing his book. There were probably practical issues (how much space the publishers would allow, where to pitch the book to get a reasonable level of sales in a small market, and so on). Then there was the problem that any journalist writing such a book needed to be conscious of his ongoing day job. Push too hard in the book and the access required to do the day job might well be jeopardised.
As it is, access seems to have proved to be quite an issue for Sachdeva in writing the book. We are explicitly told that Jacinda Ardern refused to engage at all (consistent with the Herald’s Matt Nippert’s experience earlier in her PM-ship in which he spent a year or more fruitlessly seeking an interview on PRC issues, Nippert also having pursued some of the Jian Yang story). Sachdeva is hardly some scandal-mongering reckless pseudo-journalist, but the then Prime Minister, and leader of a large political party implicated in a number of these issues, simply refused to engage. That was no doubt convenient for her.
The other person we are told who refused to engage was Professor Brady:
Brady initially indicated a willingness to speak with me for this book, before ultimately declining om the grounds that everything she might say was already in her research, and it would be ‘impossible’ for me to say anything authoritative about the New Zealand-China relationship given my lack of Mandarin-language skills and expertise in the CCP system.
For someone who has talked up the role of universities, and academics, as “critic and conscience” it didn’t seem a very constructive sort of approach. After all, quite a lot has happened since 2017. Then again, there have been indications that whereas in 2017 Brady was very much outside the official tent, and ready to air (what seemed like reasonable) complaints, that in recent years she may have taken on roles, formal or informal, that leave her feeling less free to speak. Her occasional comments on Twitter have tended to be relatively positive about the current government, and it would have been good to have heard some of those angles and arguments elaborated.
We know that Ardern and Brady refused to speak to Sachdeva. He provides a list of the people he did talk to, whose views are attributed. There is also a comment that “Other interviewees whose thoughts are included are not listed, as they agreed to speak on condition of confidentiality”. It isn’t clear quite what sort of people might be included here – if it is mostly people from within the ethnic Chinese community in New Zealand, well and good (there are probably legitimate fears of PRC intimidation and threats), but I recall a suggestion that at least one government (MFAT) official might have been included, which seems less than ideal. Either way, it is hardly as if there are revelations (breathtaking or otherwise) in the book.
What is less clear is the situation of others. Did Sachdeva not ask, or did they refuse to talk. Here, I have in mind:
- current senior National Party figures (Luxon, Brownlee, McClay (he of, for example, the infamous “vocational training schools, and none of our business” approach to the Uighur concentration camps). I recall exchanging notes with Sachdeva on Twitter several months ago and if I recall correctly he told me he had had a request in for many many months for an interview with Luxon on foreign affairs issues, to no avail.
- Simon Bridges (who – and not Bill English as Sachdeva says – signed the 2017 Belt and Road MOU, the one envisaging a “fusion of civilisations” etc, who did the 2019 trip to China, glowing state-media TV interview and all, organised by Jian Yang, and who did nothing to deal with the Jian Yang situation. Oh, and who was consistently critical of Ardern for not being sufficiently obeisant before China.
- Jami-Lee Ross
- Nanaia Mahuta, Damien O’Connor (for the foreign policy/trade side of things) and whoever was the Minister of Justice and the Minister for the intelligence services at the time the book was being written
- Jian Yang or Raymond Huo
- Phil Goff (he of the very large “donation” – auction proceeds for the works of Xi Jinping – from a Beijing source to an earlier mayoral campaign)
- Peter Goodfellow
- Nigel Haworth
- The Green Party’s foreign affairs spokesperson
- Ingrid Leary (the Labour backbencher who is now a co-chair of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, but who seems to keep very very quiet on such issues)
Remarkably, the only current member of Parliament Sachdeva (who was chair of the parliamentary press gallery only a handful of years ago) said he talked to is Simon O’Connor, the rather-marginalised National MP who is from time to time willing to speak up on these issues (also part of IPAC), but is nonetheless constrained by being a fairly junior member and spokesperson in a caucus whose leaders tend to have quite different views.
I was also a bit surprised that he had not talked to Prof Geremie Barmé, an Australian academic expert on PRC issues now resident in New Zealand (who had written an open letter – addressed broadly, but including to the then Prime Minister – urging people to take seriously the arguments and evidence Anne-Marie Brady was advancing). The letter ended thus
Since September 2017, Professor Anne-Marie Brady’s work has attracted overwhelmingly positive global attention. It has also been subjected to vilification by Chinese officialdom. Regardless, her work continues to influence the debate about China’s “sharp power” on the international stage, and it contributes to practical policy discussions in Europe, North America and in Australia. This work remains ever more pressingly relevant to the public life, and the future, of her homeland.
On the other hand, Sachdeva did get interviews with John Key, Tim Groser, and Murray McCully (and the former Executive Director and the current chair of the China Council) of the trade-trumps-all school (and who, to be fair, came to office before Xi Jinping).
And if he talked to the director of the Contemporary China Research Centre (which is apparently hosting a roundtable discussion on Sachdeva’s book in Wellington tomorrow night, which I can’t make), who seems to have become a bit more sceptical, and keen to distance himself from PRC interests, than when I wrote about some of his comments here in 2018, another surprising omission is Tony Browne. Browne is a former NZ ambassador to Beijing who for a considerable time chaired the Victoria University Confucius Institute (PRC funding etc and all, photo of Xi Jinping on its page on the Vic website), chairs the Contemporary China Research Centre (supposedly an independent forum for expertise and debate, but which shares an office with the Confucius Institute), and still appears to serve as a consultant to the PRC government entity that drives the entire Confucius Institute movement internationally. Oh, and he is also the NZ course director for the ANZSOG training programme run each year (but disrupted by Covid) for up and coming mid-level CCP officials (and where they get access to many of Australasia’s great, good, and powerful). I’m something of a Browne sceptic, but he does have a thoughtful case to make for the sort of engagement/involvement I’m critical of.
If I was extending the list of those I was surprised not to see interviewed it would include (a) at least one or two university vice-chancellors (supposedly balancing critic and conscience responsibilities with being big export businesses to China), (b) representatives (present or past) of entities like Fonterra or Zespri or Air New Zealand, or c) perhaps some freer-now-to-speak former senior MFAT officials. Perhaps a little flippantly, the New Zealand Police too, who like cosy relationships with Beijing, and allowed one of their own senior official to accept a role as visiting professor at a Chinese domestic security (aka repression and concentration camps) university. I guess they too have a case to make.
None of this is to suggest that Sachdeva is particularly sympathetic to the gruesome pro-China bonhomie that flows from the lips of John Key. He clearly isn’t. Or that he has not talked to sceptics and critics (Winston Peters and Ron Mark appear in the list of interviewees, and people like former FT Asia editor Jamil Anderlini and Australian researcher and author Alex Joske.
Nor does he fall for all the spin one sometimes hears. He rightly draws attention to the academic paper suggesting that the NZ-China preferential trade agreement probably made little or no difference to NZ GDP per capita (although reports unsceptically claims about China’s alleged role in “saving” or underpinning New Zealand economic performance after 2008, and reports uncritically conventional lines about new trade deals – UK and EU – being likely to make a material difference to New Zealand exporters’ trade with China).
There also isn’t much sense as to how perceptions and policies have been shifting over the years. Some argue that the current government is much better on PRC issues than its predecessor (perhaps just because the external backdrop is changing). Is it really so, and what is the evidence and the counter-arguments? I’m a bit sceptical myself, but Sachdeva should have had the connections and access to offer a persuasive case on issues like that. He didn’t do so.
Overall, I think my frustration with the book is that a) I didn’t learn anything and b) I wasn’t made to think harder/deeper. He didn’t seek (or at least find) sources who could shed light on events and interests (notably, for example, around the National Party, or around autonomous sanctions (where National has put forward legislation that Labour consistently refuses to support), let alone around the threats and pressures within the local Chinese community. And he doesn’t advance a robust and detailed argument for any particular approach to the PRC issues (whether one I’d prefer or some other), developed in ways that force one to think harder about one’s own view. For example, what, if any, place is there for morality in foreign policy? Is realpolitik everything, but even if it is where should that take New Zealand policymakers? Or to what extent should the business interests of particular and sectors shape the policy choices and stances of governments? Coverage of the Pacific issues (notably the Solomons) seemed weak, as did the treatment of Taiwan issues (is it really appropriate that no NZ political leader will ever explicitly acknowledge that China is threatening to invade Taiwan, and that invasion of other countries, notably free and democratic ones, really isn’t acceptable, and is it any more likely those same craven politicians will be any less bad after an invasion, when they willl presumably want their markets back pronto). He is more inclined to report someone’s glib line – eg big donations don’t really matter because migrant Chinese just want their photo with a decisionmaker, which they might struggle to do at home – rather than digging deeper and exploring (evaluating) the nature of the risks.
And so I’m left wondering what contribution the book finally makes: aren’t the sort of people who are likely to buy/read the book already fairly familiar with the issues at the level they are covered here? If others do buy and read, will they be left any better informed or influenced than some inchoate sense that “its awkward” (and that Sachdeva has a bit of hankering for a bit more state funding of political parties).
It is all coming into focus again now:
- We have an election coming, and (as he notes) no serious changes have been made to electoral donations laws that allow foreign-controlled NZ resident companies to donate heavily,
- We have an election coming, and the leader of the main opposition party has never it appears been willing to face serious questioning about his approach to PRC issues, whether as foreign policy or domestic intimidation and interference,
- We still have a member of Parliament who has been described as having close United Front ties, and other political parties appear to continue to choose ethnic Chinese candidates based on their acceptability to the PRC interests,
- Several of our universities now appear to be under severe financial pressure and would presumably champ at the bit to have more PRC students, with all the attendant economic leverage that would grant (and unwillingness to stand up as critic and conscience)
- We have Prime Minister – amid a busy year, not doing that well in the polls – nevertheless not too busy to go and make obeisance in Beijing. Note that ministers will talk a talk about diversifying trade and reducing exposure to (the somewhat overstated wider coercion risks from) China, but where is the PM leading a big trade mission, talking of introducing new (and newly subsidised) industries to the market. Of course, he will say he will mention human rights etc issues, but (a) does anyone take that seriously, beyond a “Mr General Secretary, you know we have to mention Xinjiang” and his interlocutor nods knowingly, knowing that actions and inactions speak louder than ritual incantations. Hipkins trots off to China while the PRC authorities hold indefinitely on trumped up charges a journalist from our closest ally.
- On trade, the issue is not whether private firms trade with partners in China, rather it is whether politicians here are, or are not, willing to adjust their behaviour to protect those specific sector interests, or the beliefs and values of New Zealanders.
- The Taiwan threats become more pressing by the year, and yet there is no public debate or political leadership here on the issues/threat/risks,
- Systematic media and political coverage of the PRC inroads in the Solomons (most notably but not exclusively) is limited to say the least.
There is even the small matter of whether Chinese language teaching in our state schools should be provided and funded by the New Zealand government and taxpayers or if it should continue to be heavily funded by the totalitarian, repressive, expansionist PRC authorities (through Confucius Institutes) including allowing those same authorities to vet for political/religious/ideological compliance the Mandarin language assistants put in front of kids in our classrooms. This would be an easy one to do the right thing on, but neither the universities (3 of them) that host these outposts of PRC policy, nor the schools, nor the government (nor the Opposition) seem to have any interest. What hope then for a more robust stance in other areas of policy, where vested interests are stronger. Sachdeva never did draw comparisons between New Zealand’s responses in the past to apartheid South Africa, Nazi Germany, or (nuclear testing) France. He should have.
I’ve written previously about the economic coercion issues and so won’t at length here. On specifics, I thought Sachdeva accepted too much at face value past stories of coercion (yes, Norwegian salmon exports to China fell sharply, while those to Vietnam – neighbouring country – rocketed) and didn’t really distinguish the interests of particular firms and sectors (which can be powerful lobbies, especially if they operate in secret) from overall national economic performance, especially for economies with their own monetary policy and a floating exchange rate. Similarly, he was too ready to take at face value lines about differences between Australia (iron ore exports) and New Zealand (milk powder): dairy is another globally traded product, and what isn’t sold in one market will end up being sold elsewhere (perhaps at a different prices). But my point in closing is not so much whether or no my argument is correct, as that in a rare NZ-focused book on the subject the arguments and issues just weren’t teased out and tested in a way that could have made a useful contribution to the (all too often too thin) New Zealand debate on the PRC issues.