About 15 years ago (partly thanks to a couple of years at Treasury, partly to the financial crises in the US and Europe) I started to get much more systematically interested in New Zealand’s disappointing and underwhelming economic performance, and in economic and financial history more generally. And as our kids were growing I was thinking about what to do next. The idea of writing a blog (it was still the heyday of economics blogging) appealed, focused on New Zealand economic (under)performance issues – something I obviously couldn’t do as a public servant. The kids were going to grow up fast and I wanted to be around more for them. My wife got to a position in her career where we could live fairly comfortably on one income and fortunately that coincided with Graeme Wheeler’s desire to be rid of me. And thus, with that double coincidence of wants, this blog launched on 2 April 2015.
Those who’ve followed the blog from early days may recall that for several years I was often writing twice a day, often six days a week. I had fairly voracious interests and the blog found a surprising (to me) number of readers. It also became more Reserve Bank focused than I’d ever envisaged (productivity etc matters a great deal more).
From time to time I’ve thought about how long to continue and in what form. Frequency of posts dropped off, through some combination of circumstances, including poor health for much of the last five years (weird fatigue, including post-Covid, that came and went to some extent but never seemed to go away) and other commitments. I was fortunate enough to be appointed to the board of the (central) Bank of Papua New Guinea two years ago, which has proved to be a big time commitment, and introduced something of a six-weekly cycle to posting here.
On the 10th anniversary of the blog earlier this year, I noted
Circumstances change and I’ve got busier. I have occasionally thought about shutting it down and doing other stuff – I had an outline on my desk when the BPNG appointment came through of a time-consuming project I’d still like to pursue. For now, various circumstances and considerations mean I’m going to try to discipline my public comment more narrowly. There has been an increasing range of things I’d like to have written about but it wasn’t possible/appropriate. For this blog that will mean primarily Reserve Bank things, fiscal policy, productivity and not much else, which was the original intended focus.
And now the time has come to discontinue the blog, at least as a forum for regular economic and economic policy commentary/analysis. I certainly haven’t lost interest in the issues, and the economic and institutional problems, here and elsewhere, haven’t gone away. But there have been a couple of influences. As I noted in April there has been an increasing range of things I couldn’t really comment on. Some of that was about the senior role my wife has held this year (eg largely avoiding things – many – her minister was responsible for). But longer-term my BPNG role, where I now chair the board’s financial stability and related issues committee, has also come to act as a constraint: I don’t find it as easy to comment much on things like bank capital, CBDCs, exchange rate regimes, financial market regulation, payment systems, emergency liquidity provision, failure management (or the IMF). I’ve also become increasingly uneasy about writing on central bank governance and related issues, even when specific issues are very different by country. I’d have stopped months ago if it hadn’t been for the whistleblower whose disclosures to me helped us get closer to the bottom of the Orr/Quigley stories.
So those were some constraints. But at least as importantly is the question of opportunity cost. I could have kept on writing this blog in some form or another more or less indefinitely. But time isn’t unlimited, and having given this ten years plus, I might have ten good years ahead. There are other things to do and focus on. As just one example, thinking more seriously about New Zealand’s economic and financial history, including in a cross-country context.
And, mercifully, in recent months my health seems finally to have fully recovered. I’m back to walking, fairly fast, an hour a day and getting home not exhausted. It is a very nice change to have that energy back.
I’m not going into some sort of economics purdah, but I won’t be writing regular commentary etc here at all. I will leave the website in place, and may occasionally add a post on some interesting economics book I’ve read or an aspect of economic history that takes my fancy. Perhaps also I’ll weaken very occasionally if some current issue really gets my goat, but this post is about tying myself to the mast. My intent is to stop, and to stay stopped.
And if I’m writing shorter pieces much of it may be more oriented towards my fellow Christians. I do have another blog, and I have started writing there again in the last couple of months. I intend to keep on with that, and to read more deeply in theology, biblical studies, and related societal issues.
Anyway, thank you to the everyone who has read the blog over the last 10+ years. It has, mostly, been fun, and stimulating. Writing has often clarified my own thinking and it has been great to have had an audience. I’ve enjoyed interacting with a range of people through blog comments and private correspondence. And I’m not going anywhere.
It is the church’s season of Advent. In the first few years of the blog I’d often include some explicitly Christian material to end my final post each year. So here I’ll leave you with the words of one of my favourite Advent carols.
croaking cassandra 
Thank you for your commentary over the years Michael.
At some stage you gave a six point prescription for New Zealand. The only one I remember now, perhaps correctly, was to not allow any students below the Masters level into the country.
Would one “final” post of your current thoughts on where to for NZ be appropriate?
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There was a long list some years ago (most of which I’d still echo)
Someone else yesterday also asked for such a post. This was my reply:
Probably won’t be able to manage a new post, but the two key elements of any successful strategy would probably involved substantially lower taxes on business income and much lower permanent rates of non-citizen immigration. Decades of history suggest that we – and Australia – suffer severely from remoteness, with relatively limited profitable investment opportunities here. Against that backdrop it has been strange – to put it mildly – to see govts attempting to drive up the population all while running some of the highest company tax rates in the advanced world.
Whether or not we could get back to the top of the league tables now is perhaps an open question (the nature of econ activity has changed in the many decades since we were up there) but we should be able to do a great deal better than we have in recent decades. Catching up to Aus would be a start.
On the Masters students, I think I suggested something like we might be pretty open about giving residency to anyone with at least a masters from a top 50 university (might not get a huge number, but they would have been high skilled).
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Sorry to see you cease this missive Michael, but fully understand and support your necessary and pragmatic decision.
I have read your blog since near the beginning and drawn understanding and perspective from it. Sometimes I read in detail, other times scanned for tidbits of particular resonance on the day… Of particular note for me is the integrity and fairness with which you framed your commentary. Honest, impartial voices are to be treasured. I too name Jesus Christ as my Saviour. I’d be keen to follow that blog if you can point me in the right direction?
Thank you for your impact on NZ. I have all your emails intact, so they will remain an archive should something arise that requires their input.
Enjoy your Christmas Michael,
Piers Helm piers16@gmail.com piers16@gmail.com (now piers.helm@protonmail.com piers.helm@protonmail.com) Ilam, Christchurch
>
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Thanks Piers. Here is a link to the other blog.
https://amongtraditions.wordpress.com/
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Thank you Michael for all your posting.. Even though some of it sailed over my limited to Econ101 education head!
i particularly want to thank you for you postings on the Orr era at the RBNZ. A disaster for the country is my personal verduct on his reign.
I hope that legal threats have not played a role in your decision.
Senior Officials need to be questioned to ensure competence and probity in their activities on behalf of Tax Payers
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Thank you, Michael, for all the work you put into your blog over the years. I will certainly miss it. If you ever get to writing the book on New Zealand’s economic and financial history and need an organisation to publish it, please get in touch. Merry Christmas to you and your family, Oliver
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Thanks Oliver
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Thank you for a massive contribution Michael and best luck in future endeavours
Brent
Brent Wheeler B.A., Ph.D INFINZ (CSAP)
Mobile: +64 21 834 279
Email: brent@brentwheeler.combrent@brentwheeler.com
Blog: Eye2theLongRun | Beyond first appearanceshttps://eye2thelongrun.com/
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Thanks
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Thank you for the long history if high quality content, Mike.
Your deep knowledge of both monetary policy and the RBNZ made your comments compulsory reading for many, myself included.
Kind regards
Stephen Montgomery
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Thanks Stephen
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Thank you Michael. I very rarely ever comment on anything online but knowing this is last moves me. While some of the issues would go escape my understanding (funding for lending programme!). Your words and ideas have really helped me understand and frame economic issues over the years.
Kind regards
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Michael — thank you for such a substantial and sustained effort. I’ve always valued your perspective and will miss it. Very glad to hear you’re healthy. Wishing you and your family a happy Christmas. All the best,Peter
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Thanks very much Peter
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Well Michael, I know you’re not going away, but as one of the regular readers of your blog I know it’s absence will certainly leave a wide gap in the range of useful monetary and economic commentary.
Firstly it is pleasing to know that you are well, and that the reason for cutting back these blogs is because your considerable talents are being used elsewhere.Over the years you have played a leading role in holding the feet of the Reserve Bank to the fire and consistently argued for better data, transparency, and openness from the Bank about monetary policy issues and conditions. I sincerely hope someone can pick up that role as there are enduring and ongoing questions about the role of Central Banks, including whether that needs to change as technology has a greater impact on the system that supports saving and investment, transactions and the use of money.
We have also got used to the idea that representatives of organisations (like politicians) only speak positively or defensively about their actions and decisions, even when they have been wrong or in doubt, and can never admit fault. Independent commentators of substance are thus essential to an informed public and sadly all too rare. This blog will therefore be missed.
Your decision to step aside from it raises interesting issues:
What happens to the blog or the archive of your postings? Will they be permanently accessible on the Internet? This is a general issue when commentators move on. Some people write a book encapsulating their observations or research. What are your thoughts?
You have accumulated an impressive collection of data and graphs which you bring out an update regularly to illustrate and support your economic comments. What will happen to your Database?
For me your view that your role at the BPNG constrains your ability to comment sits a bit uncomfortably alongside your consistent arguments that Central Bank people should actually talk more about what they do, the challenges and their responses. While there are naturally some sensitivities and commercial confidences, you have argued well that Central Bank people should be more forthcoming and open about policies models frameworks, alternatives and self criticism. When insiders speak out truthfully and forthrightly there is no need for whistleblowers and investigations to uncover what has been undisclosed. The time you spent on the Orr saga illustrates that.
I guess I’m making the point that insiders are the best placed to provide informed comment because they have the information. We are not always right but it is the process of frank and open discussion and exchange of confirmed facts (not framed and tailored factoids) and views, either in disagreement or agreement, that encourages and allows us to form new understandings or opinions.
Wishing you all the very best for Christmas and the New Year 2026 and continued conversations even as the blog ceases to be the medium.
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Thanks Bill. As for the blog, yes all the history will remain there, probably for years to come (it is a reference point for me as much as anyone else).
On communications etc a) I have to operate within the BPNG rules, but then I have never said anything here about BPNG or PNG economic issues more generally, but b) my bigger concern was my comments on NZ central banking or markets issues potentially being used and abused to try to embarrass BPNG on some issue or other. And while i am strongly in favour of greater transparency for cen banks, the main emphasis in that debate internationally is about mon pol. There BPNG – which since early this year now has a separate MPC – actually scores quite well, as by law MPC members’ indiv views and votes are required to be published.
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Dear Michael,
Thank you very much for many stimulating ideas, and for insights into how noble intentions occasionally turn out in practice. One thing I am sure of – you have been a noble civil servant, in the very best sense of the word. This alone deserves praise, very much praise.
All the best!
Paul
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Thanks very much Paul
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Darn it. Another blog I read consistently and look forward to is shuttering. Once upon a time I had pride in NZ institutions (especially the Reserve Bank) and the quality of the people employed in them. We always seemed to punch above our weight and it gave me a great sense of pride when very senior bankers in the UK (British & American) commented favourably about our Central Bank. Now we just seem to punch down. Sad to see you go but best wishes.
Chris Rich
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Thanks
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Michael, immense thanks to you for your insightful, detailed and trenchant posts over the years, and all without charge to us at point of consumption or at any other point. The opportunity cost to you will have been large. I hope there are issues that will cause you to weaken and return, because there are no good substitutes for you on many of the issues that you have written on. In either case, best wishes on your new endeavours, Martin Lally
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Thanks Martin. I rather hope there aren’t such issues because policy and institutions get steadily better and better. Ok, so I am an idealist, albeit a pessimistic one….
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Michael,
I have thoroughly enjoyed reading you for the last year, thank you. I understand your logic for retiring from this blog, but will miss your writing. If you care to tell me what your other blog is, where you will read more deeply in theology, biblical studies, and related societal issues”, please do.
Sincerely Tony Brenton-Rule E: thebrsnz@gmail.com T: 022 100 7899
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Thanks. Here is a link to the other blog
https://amongtraditions.wordpress.com/
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Dear Michael,
Thank you for your stimulating pieces over the last ten years. You probably underestimate your reach, profound and challenging impact. There is no doubt that you have stimulated debate on monetary, fiscal and productivity issues at a time New Zealand needs. Often, I think of New Zealand as a small boat, rudderless, drifting and going nowhere other than in a circle. Your clarity of thought and challenge of the status quo has significantly contributed to the tough discussions we need to have about our economic future.
Best wishes for the future,
Gavin Walker.
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Thanks very much for those kind words Gavin
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Thanks Michael for all of your hard work in writing this blog. As a retired former editor, I have found not being fully employed gives you time for thought and following interests that were previously not available. I wish you good health and look forward to any further contributions you may make when that time comes again. One question: Did a publisher ever inquire about a general-reader aimed book based on that article you were forced to withdraw? Best wishes Nevil Gibson
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Thanks Nevil. On your question, no.
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Congrats and thanks for so many years of such valuable insights. So pleased your energy is on the up and up – and all the best wishes and blessings to you and your family in the coming years.
Merry Christmas, Katharine
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Thanks very much Katharine (& for your comments over the years)
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That’s a real pity Michael. You have been an interesting , somewhat coruscating and intelligent gadfly challenging the economic scene. It’s a tiny village without enough thought through voices. I have enjoyed all your work. I wish you well in your future endeavours.
PC
Paul Chrystall
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Thanks Paul
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Dear Michael,
Thank you for your extremely knowledgeable and substantive blogs. I have always appreciated your integrity in shining a truthful light on often hidden and sometimes “spin-doctor” matters. Your Fiscal Transparency will be sorely missed.
Peace and Grace. Gregory Fortuin (gfortuin@xtra.co.nz)
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Thanks Gregory
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Good to hear you are feeling better Michael, and thank you for all the ‘heavy lifting’ you have performed over the years with your economic analysis. Your charts were always helpful in providing a visual comparision of where we stand with respect to our fellow OECD countries, and Australia in particular.
Your analysis will be missed of course, but I do look forward to re-visiting your Christian blog from time to time. I couldn’t see any way to easily subscribe to the posts there. I currently receive posts from this blog sent as an email – can the same thing happen with your other blog?
Best wishes for Christmas and the new year, and thank you again for the time spent on this blog. There will be not a few Reserve Bank employees and politicians who will toast your ‘retirement’.
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Thanks Brendan. I have added back a button enabling people to email subscribe to the other blog (I think it used to be there and somehow disappeared in one of WordPress’s upgrades). Should show on the bottom right hand corner of the screen.
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Thank you Michael for your years of public service asking the hard questions on New Zealand’s economic fundamentals, providing insightful commentary on the issues, and holding the relevant institutions and people to account. Obviously sorry to see you finishing up your regular blog, as I know others will be (well, maybe not the story subjects themselves, or those in the OIA processes … !!). I’ll look forward to any occasional future posts. Leo
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Thanks Leo
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Thank you for your detailed and thorough coverage of various topics over the years. I’m virtually an economic illiterate, but I’ve appreciated your clarity of thought and obvious integrity when I’ve read your writing. Me aku mihi nui, John B.
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Thanks
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Hi Michael
As one of your unseen but regular readers, thank you for the informed commentary over the years. Enjoy the next phase of your career.
I hope we still hear you on radio now and again. There are not many objective, unbiased commentators these days, so thanks again.
Regards
Paul Riethmaier
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Thanks Paul
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I wish you Good luck Michael.
Architects are taught little about business and even less about the effects of macro economics, which has major effects upon the economic environment which we exist in.
As a director of a major Auckland Architectural company for nearly 20 years I grew interested in economics mainly by reading your blog and listening to Tony Alexander.
I am still largely ignorant but pay a lot more attention to what is being economically said.
Thank you for all your work
Keith Leuschke
Retired Architect
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Thank you Mr Reddell, your posts and insights will be missed.
Thank you especially for tolerating those of us who were nowhere near as knowledgeable of these very complex matters. Much appreciated.
Best wishes for the future.
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Thanks. (Not a matter of “toleration” – I’ve enjoyed the engagement.)
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Thanks, and best wishes for the future. I really appreciate the time you took to reply to my questions.
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Hi Michael,
I am sorry to see you decide to hang up the keyboard but as they say in Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 there is a season…
I’ve enjoyed your blogs over the years and in particular your strong conviction – which I share – in holding people to account. Some might view this as personal, but in my opinion, its about morality, and right and wrong.
Its important for those in positions of responsibility to realise that they work for us, the people, not the other way around. And they only have a Temp Job at that.
Wishing you good health and happiness.
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Thanks Peter
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Dear Michael,
This year you’ve certainly been the NZ Business Journalist of the Year. Amusingly, the chumocracy gave it to Jenee Tibshraeny, for her lame RBNZ reporting, when yours has been in another league; incomparably more indepth. Orr, who threatened you with defamation, and Willis, will be delighted to see the Blog closing, just like the Nats were delighted to see mine closing. A Nat Minister told me there’d be no Board type high level appointments for me blogging the kind of (truthful) stuff I did. And a Fletchers Director called my University complaining that I described them as a monopoly. Only in wallboards, he said. Hilarious. Foodstuffs threatened a University colleague with defamation for calling them a monopoly.
Yes, the great NZ chumocracy can get back to schmoozing, appointing their own, “you scratch my back I’ll scratch yours”, monopoly profits, inbred relationships, and B people getting the top jobs, all the more now your Blog is gone. The RBNZ in particular will be thrilled as it decks out its empty Auckland offices. No holding Breman to account when she got the Governor job ahead of far superior qualified NZ citizen candidates. Michael’s Blog closure marks a retreat from private and public accountability in NZ.
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Just two things in response:
a) I wouldn’t take anything away from Jenee. There are limits to what anyone can do on a specialist topic in a mass-market newspaper. But she consistently pursued the issues, and had (and used) access to people like Willis and Quigley (to pose questions, not always answered) that I certainly didn’t have (and which I drew on).
b) On Breman, I know I’m not as critical as you are of the appointment but I have raised a number of concerns and issues
https://croakingcassandra.com/2025/11/21/the-new-governor-and-those-responsible-for-her/ and am pretty clear that I doubt it was a good appointment. It is good to see local media asking some of those questions of her. Whether she ends up materially better than we fear – incl working for the egregious Finlay – only time will tell.
Looking ahead, one hopes a new generation of commenters will pick up the baton. Who knows, one day even FEC might try consistently doing its job.
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AI reads your blog Michael
Direct answer: Michael Reddell would likely be skeptical of Jonathan Ayling’s “Two Swords” framing. Reddell’s writing on Croaking Cassandra often stresses the decline of Christianity in New Zealand and the hollowing out of its institutional authority. He would probably argue that Ayling’s column misreads the balance of power: the church is no longer a serious counterweight to the state, and invoking medieval metaphors obscures the real drivers of cultural change—capitalism, migration, and elite-led pluralism. 📝 Reddell’s Perspective on the Church
⚔️ Ayling’s “Two Swords” Column
🏦 What Reddell Would Emphasize Instead
🔑 Distilled Contrast
In short: Reddell would likely dismiss Ayling’s “Two Swords” column as romantic but irrelevant, pointing instead to capitalism and elite cultural agendas as the true forces reshaping New Zealand’s civic order.
Sources: LinkedIn croaking cassandra
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Intriguing take altho perhaps shows the limits of AI as I actually wrote a response to or commentary on the Ayling piece
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All the best Michael. I have really enjoyed your blog and only recently have had the time to engage more thoughtfully with your commentary. So I am sad for me to see you stop, but glad for you that you have improved health to enjoy.
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Thanks
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Michael
Thank you for your diligent efforts to set out and explain your thinking on so many topics. I probably wasn’t all that enthralled by the goings on within the RB, but you certainly covered many topics which don’t normally get such clear and fact based reporting. I recall fondly the facts you presented about immigration when you use to write about that.
Its a real shame that all those nuggets will now remain buried until someone of your bent turns up to expose them as you have over the last few years.
I also really enjoyed your occasional book reviews and my selection of reading material has benefited from your reports.
Best wishes for good health, keeping PNG on the straight and narrow, family time, and I hope at some point resuming your reports.
Tim
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Thank you Michael
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To echo what has been written above, thanks for your contributions. I probably understood maybe 50% but this was the only place to get long form analysis
All the best
Kevin
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Thanks Michael
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