About Michael Reddell’s blog

I’ve spent 30+ years doing economic analysis and policy advice in a range of institutions, in New Zealand and overseas.  Most of that time was at the Reserve Bank, where I ran a number of areas, including a spell as Head of Financial Markets, responsible for monetary policy implementation, foreign reserves management, and the analysis of financial system risks.  I spent 25 years or so on the (equivalent of the) OCR Advisory Group to the Governor, and many years on the Bank’s key internal financial regulation policy committee.

In other parts of my career, I was resident economic adviser to the central banks of Papua New Guinea and Zambia, the latter as an IMF-appointee.  I spent two years as Alternate Executive Director on the Board of the International Monetary Fund (representing New Zealand and a dozen other countries) and two years as Special Adviser at The Treasury.

In this blog, I hope to contribute to the debate on policy and economic issues, bringing to bear my experience, reading and thinking, and sharpening my own thinking  –  including as and when others respond and engage.

My professional background is mostly in macroeconomics.  My interests go much wider, and that wider range will be reflected in the content of this blog.  This page links to some of the more substantial pieces I’ve done, past and more recently.

My first allegiance is to Jesus Christ, whose disciple I set out, by grace, to be.  I hope that influences the content of my thoughts, and how I express them.  One practical outworking of my faith is that this blog will not be updated on Sundays.   I will also be commenting on aspects of faith and Christianity at https://amongtraditions.wordpress.com/.

I can be contacted at mhreddell  at gmail.com.

UPDATE:  In December 2023 the government of Papua New Guinea appointed me to the policymaking and governance board of their central bank (the Bank of Papua New Guinea), under a statutory provision that requires at least one board member to have wider central bank expertise and not to be resident in PNG.  I do not write, and will not be doing so, directly about PNG issues, and no other central banking views articulated here should be read as reflections on the PNG situation (nor, of course, are any views expressed here anything but my personal views.).

30 thoughts on “About Michael Reddell’s blog”

  2. Michael I am a bit mystified after reading the back ground on Cassandra why you use Cassandra as your title. Do you think you are disbelieved or have been in your advice on economic policies. I am sure you were an excellent economist. With national economics politics can try to take over. But is the political force stronger than the economic force? Maybe. The ruler of the Reserve Bank is a politician. Blessings. ….Lester.

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  3. Hi Michael,

    I am a Producer at Radio Live. I am always keen to get an unbiased, expert view on economic matters. I hate using bank economists. Are you interested in a bit of radio comment? For example today I would love to get some commentary on the Fed decision and what it is telling us.

    Kind regards,
    Mitch Harris

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  4. Hey Michael when will Nz be free from the criminal cartel enslaving our people are we strong enough to get rid of the fiat currency and go back to a honest gold backed one!!!

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      • I would have thought that after what has come out of the Australian “Banking Commission” as it is commonly described, albeit innaccurately, it would have been fairly obvious, especially to someone with your background, to whom Andrew was referring. I think the result/outcome of the criminal cartel charges currently being brought against ANZ etc in Australia will give a further insight.

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  7. Really enjoyed your comments on 1ZB this morning
    We should have been adding value to our raw materials for years
    Factories adding value to our resources great idea

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  10. […] Michael Reddell has spent 30+ years doing economic analysis and policy advice in a range of institutions, in New Zealand and overseas.  Most of that time was at the Reserve Bank, including a spell as Head of Financial Markets, responsible for monetary policy implementation, foreign reserves management, and the analysis of financial system risks.  He spent 25+ years on the (equivalent of the) OCR Advisory Group to the Governor, and many years on the Bank’s key internal financial regulation policy committee. […]

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  12. Hi Michael
    Enjoying your blogs. If there’s an email alert when they pop up please include me.
    Just read Aftershock by David Wiedemer 4th edition. What are your thoughts on the next economic event and if / when it arrives how will it compare to 2008. Wiedemer seems to think the next one will make 2008 look like a walk in the park

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    • There is a sign-up box to get posts by email on the right hand side of the main blog page.

      Re the next crisis, my main concern is the lack of scope for policy responses this time round. Interest rates are already extremely low, and in many countries there isn’t much fiscal capacity either, so whatever triggers the next severe recession it will be very difficult to get out of it again (risks only exacerbated by euro-area breakup risk).

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  13. Bookmarked your page some time ago and have enjoyed reading it this morning. I have a question about national productivity. Does the unemployment rate affect is included in national productivity measures? if so the recent increase in those drawing benefit and our relatively high unemployment rate would have a negative effect. Appreciate if you could conform my understanding.

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  15. Hi there Michael,

    I wonder if you could do an appraisal of the govt’s new green bond scheme – particularly to inform us how the RB would be likely to manage it, and any implications for our currency & foreign trade. I presume the Treasury’s role is more design than operational?

    For context, here’s what I wrote on The Standard earlier, quoting today’s Herald report…

    Govt inserts Green lever into the economy:

    The Government will soon be issuing sovereign “green bonds” to help raise finance towards a move to a low-carbon economy. Green bonds, which provide financing for low-emission or environmental projects such as renewable energy or reforestation, have increasingly become part of climate financing around the world.

    Last year, the global green bond market reached a cumulative issuance milestone of US$1 trillion since its inception in 2007 – a year before the World Bank began issuing them.

    Money raised from the bonds would be used to support projects that help reach the net-zero carbon 2050 target the Government has set with legislation. “Green bonds will enhance the development of New Zealand’s sustainable finance market,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/climate-change-nz-to-issue-green-bonds-to-help-decarbonise/KY5V3H46G3FLI6F2VRUNAHM5ZU/

    This strikes me as a substantial shift away from greenwash.

    “The creation of a green bond programme will add a new financing tool we can use to deliver the low-carbon projects we need to meet our climate targets,” Climate Change Minister James Shaw said.

    “Something in the order of 80 per cent of the global economy is now covered by some form of net-zero target. To meet these targets and cut emissions in line with what the science requires, capital needs to be directed towards activity that will accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Green bonds will be a crucial part of that.”

    New Zealand Debt Management at the Treasury is leading work on the green bond programme.

    So what we seem to have here is both design and enforcement method. Time will tell if the combo actually works – but it does promise a morphing effect, away from neoliberalism towards sustainability.

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  17. Saw some of your comments on Twitter (or X now) about recent wealth tax proposal including latest from Māori Party with top rate of 8%. What are your thoughts about FIF which acts like a kind of wealth tax at 2% for foreign investments above $50k? Should it be repealed or replaced with something else? Is it holding back attracting new high-skilled migrants?

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    • I don’t have a strong view, altho it is supposed to proxy an (average) income tax rather than a wealth tax(a wealth tax would be on top of the FIF). I’d be a little surprised if it was a particularly important issue re high skilled migrants as typically we would probably be targeting on fairly young migrants who prob won’t have large financial assets abroad, at least after buying an overpriced NZ house.

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